Moreton – Australia 2025

It is still a ways to go but if the Greens were to win another federal seat QLD here would be the best shot they have.

the grees wont get any more seats in qld. their best chancesare in victoria. i doubt they would have the resources to anyway.

I recognise that Moreton is literally their best prospect in QLD by current Greens primary vote @SpaceFish, but next election it would be wise if they focused on sandbagging what they’ve got. Any excess campaign energy and attention could be directed down below the border to assist in the Richmond efforts. Richmond has been a long time coming for them. There was only ~2.5% margin sitting between Nolan and Elliot before the Greens were eventually excluded from the preference count in 2022. We can assume that if this was overcome, Labor preferences would have comfortably delivered the seat to the Greens over the Nationals on 2PP.

There are a few seats at the state election where if the Greens win, they have cause to target a federal seat. In descending order of plausibility

Miller -> Moreton
Stafford -> Lilley
Chatsworth -> Bonner
Everton -> Dickson

Chatsworth and Everton are very, very, long shots with tiny overlaps onto federal Green seats, but may be targeted by Greens to put more LNP held seats in the mix at both tiers. Though QLD seems like the least concerned Green party with the optics of going after Labor seats (as well as their history of winning seats off the LNP).

An active Greens campaign may actually help Perrett retain the seat – if left alone as an ALP vs LNP contest the LNP might get the edge with a QLD based leader. SEQ observer I think you are right about Greens priorities UNLESS they win Miller – the newly elected state MP and their office will make a difference

i agree with SEQ Observer, the Greens will look to Sandbag all 3 seats in QLD first. I also agree Richmond is a logical next seat. The seats that the Greens are likely to win are when one of the major parties has a primary vote below 30%. Here the LNP and ALP primary vote is much greater than that. Also much of Moreton is middle ring suburbia very ethnic rather than tealish. The areas close to river are very affluent but this seat also includes some lower income areas. So there is a big primary vote gap that the Greens need to close. I think LNP are at a low ebb in this seat as it includes Tealish and Chinese Australian voters both who are hostile to current direction of the Libs. I dont think a QLD based leader in Dutton will help here unlike in the Moreton Bay Region and Blair. This is an area that is demographically hostile to Dutton even if they are from the same state.

With Cassy O’Connor gone (the most senior Green who regularly made a big deal about the CCP, sometimes veering a bit too far into Sinophobia) Greens may be better positioned to pick up Chinese Australian votes, which may not favour either major party. They have had Chinese speaking candidates campaigning on WeChat before but not in Moreton.

I think the issue John is that areas like Sunnybank (where there is a large Chinese community) are more middle class where there is a focus on bread/butter issue. It is the same issue they faced at the Warrandyte state by-election where the absence of Labor candidate in Middle Class ethnically diverse in Doncaster East drove voters towards the Libs rather than Greens. One of the main reasons that Labor won in Higgins rather than Green is that the Eastern Middle Class Fringe (Ashburton, Chadstone, Murrumbeena, Carnegie) offered swang from Lib to ALP rather than Lib to Green in the seat of Ryan. The Greens do well in trendy inner city areas, alternative lifestyle areas such as Byron Shire/Nimbin etc, tree change/sea change areas like Upper Blue Mountains etc, in the absence of a Teal they outpoll Labor in elite/posh suburbs but they dont do well in Low income areas or even middle Australia. I dont think the Greens are going to be competitive in seats like Chisholm, Reid, Banks Deakin, Aston etc which are the middle Australia seats

Isn’t Graham Perrett at danger of being dumped so that the ALP can fulfil their affirmative action quota?

“An active Greens campaign may actually help Perrett retain the seat – if left alone as an ALP vs LNP contest the LNP might get the edge with a QLD based leader.”

@John

People are entitled to make predictions. But it should pointed last time there were alot comments in the Moreton thread talking up the Liberals chances picking up Moreton. It wasn’t even close.

I don’t think it matters what the Greens do or don’t do. It’s a Labor retain.

I agree with some of the above comments – the Greens are far from winning this seat. I read that Brisbane/GC Greens are targeting Richmond over the NSW border, but has a very low margin. In fact, the Greens have already preselected Mandy Nolan again two years ahead of schedule.

Moreton currently has the lowest enrolment in the state. At this rate, at the next redistribution, Moreton will likely expand southward or westward geographically and take in mostly ALP vs LNP parts of Rankin or Oxley. This would kill off the Greens’ chances. There’s a slim chance of expanding northward to Dutton Park or crossing the Pacific Motorway.

Someone mentioned Perrett was retiring in the Blair thread. This makes it a 3 corner contest especially if Greens can get a beach head in Miller (state seat covering the best Green areas here).

I wonder if Moreton should take the North West Part of Rankin and South-Western Part of Bonner but then remove the Western Half of Moreton as this seat has the best community of interest

Marh, I agree with some of your suggestions on a cultural basis. The parts of Rankin that are within Brisbane City Council have more in common with Moreton than with anywhere in Logan City. And Corinda and Oxley feel more like the suburbs that are in the seat of Oxley than the rest of Moreton (and it’s a bit silly that Oxley isn’t fully in the electorate named for it, but I suppose Kooyong already set a precedent with that.

A bit more complex with the other areas. Mount Gravatt is culturally similar to suburbs like Holland Park that are in Griffith, more so than suburbs in Moreton. I predict the AEC will preserve the highway as the boundary, with Bonner retaining Mount Gravatt eventually gaining suburbs like Holland Park and Mount Gravatt East as Griffith continues to become more dense.

Chelmer and Graceville probably have more in common with Fig Tree Pocket and Chapel Hill than anywhere else, all being quite wealthy areas. But I doubt the AEC will ever put a seat across the river again. So it’s either Moreton or Oxley for them, and I think they’d be as culturally out of place in Oxley as they are in Moreton.

@Wilson another example of a seat sharing its name with a suburb that isn’t in the electorate but is nearby is Parkes in NSW; the town of Parkes is actually in Calare (the Division of Parkes and the town of Parkes are named after Sir Henry Parkes). Just some random trivia.

@np Parkes will probably be in Parkes a after the redistribution

@John yeah that was in my proposal too.

@np it is most ifnot all